NIGERIA CHINA RELATIONS AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT: AN ASSESSMENT OF TRADE, INFRASTRUCTURE, AND DEBT SUSTAINABILITY (2010–2024)

This study assessed the impact of Nigeria–China bilateral relations on Nigeria's economic development between 2010 and 2024, focusing on three dimensions: bilateral trade patterns, Chinese-funded infrastructural projects, and Chinese loans in relation to Nigeria's external debt sustainability. Adopting an ex-post facto research design, the study relied on secondary data from the International Trade Centre (ITC), UN COMTRADE, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), and the Debt Management Office (DMO). Data were analyzed using descriptive statistics and regression analysis. Guided by Dependency Theory, the study found that Nigeria consistently experienced a large and widening trade deficit with China, rising from –$5.3 billion in 2010 to –$8.33 billion in 2024, reflecting a structurally asymmetric trade relationship. Chinese-funded infrastructure (railways, roads, power, and ports) contributed significantly and positively to Nigeria's economic growth, with investment rising from $1.2 billion to $5.8 billion over the period. However, Chinese loans significantly worsened Nigeria's external debt sustainability, with loan stock increasing from $1.4 billion to $5.4 billion and debt-service-to-revenue ratios exceeding 80% in several years. The study concluded that while China's engagement enhanced infrastructure development, it simultaneously deepened trade dependence and fiscal vulnerability. Recommendations include export diversification, strengthened local content requirements, and prudent debt management frameworks linked to revenue-generating projects.

0 23 Jun, 2026

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JBMIC PORTAL SYSTEM

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